olsaydı

// p = 0.00 · ninety-nine attempts
← Ilyas Baqa

Δ 0.00 probability 0.0000 0 / 99 changed

olsaydı (Turkish: “if it had been”) takes a short encounter apart into 99 small decisions, from breakfast at home or outside to the green or the blue toothbrush to a kiss in the middle of the street, and lets an optimisation algorithm search their combinations for the one world in which it would have worked out.

The search, in plain words

Imagine looking for the highest point of a landscape in the dark. At first you jump far, even downhill, so you do not get stuck on the first small hill. Over time you become more careful and only take steps that lead upward. That is how the search works here, only not across a path but across 99 moments at once. The curve below the image shows its way: how high it climbed, which peaks it left again, and how far below 1 it stayed.

How to read the image

A partly fictional work

The probabilities and the weights of the 99 moments are invented. They were set by the artist, not measured. The method is real: the parametrisation of the moments, the model of decisions that depend on one another, and the algorithm that searches for the world with the highest probability are ordinary tools of engineering. Even with data he set himself, the probability never comes anywhere near 1: the world in which it would have worked out could not even be invented.

What it is about

The work shows the futility of a mind that takes a situation apart into ever smaller details, runs through the possible combinations again and again, jumps from one thought to the next, and arrives at the same result every time. The mind needs order to process what it has lived through. Turning 99 screws in an encounter this short, to force a different outcome, is one example of it.

It is the process of an obsessed mind trying to create order in its world with the means at hand: engineering, optimisation, the parametrisation of the most banal decisions and of unlucky facts that can end up having an outsized impact on a life. At the end, the search returns to the world as it was.

Why 99

In Islamic tradition, God is called by ninety-nine beautiful names, al-asmāʾ al-ḥusnā. The tespih, the string of prayer beads, has 99 beads. With each bead a name is spoken and counted. This repetition, dhikr, is meant to quiet the mind and bring it into the presence of what it remembers. A tradition holds that beyond the ninety-nine, a hundredth name remains hidden.

olsaydı borrows this count. Its 99 moments pass through the search like beads through the fingers. But where the tespih counts toward stillness, the search counts toward control. The hundredth stays hidden; here, too, what is searched for is not among the 99.

Study for The Translation Device

olsaydı is Attempt 03.4 in Series I, a study for the thermal printer of The Translation Device. In the installation, a printer writes observations of intimate moments onto endless paper, and steel rollers render them illegible again. The 99 moments and the worlds the search runs through are material for that paper: written down, run through again and again, erased.

decision variables
99 binary variables, M.01 to M.99: 0 = as it was, 1 = changed
search space
299 = 633 825 300 114 114 700 748 351 602 688 possible worlds (candidate solutions)
for scale
about two million times all the cells in the bodies of all 8 billion people on Earth; roughly as many as all the bacteria on Earth, or all the atoms in about 90 human bodies
objective
maximise p, the probability that it would have worked out
algorithm
simulated annealing
how it works
It starts in the world as it was and changes one moment at a time, then checks whether the whole world became more or less probable. At first it also accepts changes for the worse, so it can jump far. Step by step it accepts fewer of them, until one world sets. The name comes from annealing metal: heat it, let it cool slowly, and it settles into a stable order.
used for
chip layout, route and timetable planning, production scheduling, protein folding: problems with far too many combinations to try them all
dependencies
each moment helps or hurts only in combination with four others; four pairs of moments contradict each other and cannot both change
searched
steps, so at most 12 000 of 299 worlds: 0.0000000000000000000000019 % of all worlds (≈ 1.9 × 10−26)
every world
On an ordinary computer, the 12 000 steps take about 5 milliseconds. Looking at every world one by one, at about 2.5 million worlds per second, would take about 8 quadrillion years: around 580 000 times the age of the universe. Even a supercomputer checking a billion billion worlds per second would need about 20 000 years.
as it was
Δ = 0.00 · p =
best world found
of 99 moments changed · Δ = · p = , shown as 0.00
invented
probabilities, weights, dependencies
real
the 99 moments, the model, the search

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